The college basketball season is fifteen days away. With the AP Poll released, we break down our thoughts on the preseason rankings.
1. What team is ranked too high in the AP Top 25? Why?
Nick: UCLA (#2). We saw a remarkable run by the Bruins in March, and they brought nearly everyone back. Of course, they were 17-9 in the regular season and placed in the play-in game. Was it just a flash in the pan? Were they truly a team decimated by injuries that finally got to play at full strength in March Madness? We are a Michigan State collapse away from this team being bounced in the First Four. They’re good, but they aren’t #2 in the country.
Sam: Villanova (#4). This feels more like a respectful gesture to Jay Wright than anything. Yes, the Wildcats have been the class of the Big East for years, but with losing do-everything star Jeremiah Robinson Earl, I don’t know where this team turns to. Super senior Collin Gillespie returns, but after recovering from a torn ACL, how good can the, in my opinion, already overrated point guard be? A lot will hinge on the guard play alongside him, with both Caleb Daniels and Justin Moore returning. I should probably give Jay Wright the benefit of the doubt, but I’m not sold this team is the class of the league, let alone #4 in the country.
2. What team is ranked too low in the AP Top 25? Why?
Nick: Virginia (#25). The Hoos lost Sam Hauser and Jay Huff from last year’s team, but they return Kihei Clark. Two vital transfers to this team’s success are Armann Franklin (Indiana) and Jayden Gardner (East Carolina). Franklin is a Three-and-D type player that can thrive in the defensive system Bennett implements at UVA. Gardner is a bit more of a wild card. He was the second leading scorer and rebounder in the AAC last year, and when called upon, Gardner can go get this team a bucket. However, he got a shot % way higher at ECU than he will at Virginia, where the ball is dispersed throughout the lineup. This team is like Michigan State in terms of its unknowns, but the identity created by the Head Coach has this team poised for more success.
Sam: Houston (#15). I talked about Jay Wright getting a respectful gesture, but what about Kelvin Sampson? All he’s done in the last five years is win 20+ games in each season, and finished the season ranked in the top 20 in KenPom in each of the last four. Yes, the Cougars returns just one starter from its Final Four squad, but it’s a good one at that in guard Marcus Sasser. Tramon Mark, a talented sixth man as a freshman a season ago also returns, as does Fabian White, a monster rebounder. Throw in Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards who should start immediately, and this has the looks of a typical Sampson led Houston team- and that is a very, very good thing.
3. Who is the biggest question mark amongst teams ranked in the AP Top 25?
Nick: Memphis (#12). They got the #1 recruiting class yes, headlined by Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates. But can Penny Hardaway win? As he enters Year 4 with yet another top recruiting class, he is 63-32 without an NCAA Tournament appearance. Is Emoni Bates ready for stardom a year ahead of schedule? How will the roster play without seven transfers, such as DJ Jeffries, Boogie Ellis and Moussa Cisse? They will rely on the two freshmen above, Landers Nolley and Miami (FL) Earl Timberlake to get Penny to the NCAA Tournament. If this team can’t do it, can Penny ever take Memphis back to prominence?
Sam: Oregon (#13). This will probably come back to bite me because Oregon seemingly always peaks in March, but I think there are more questions than answers for this team. Will Richardson and Eric Williams are two good returning pieces to build off of, but Dana Altman will be relying on a trio of Power 5 transfers in Jacob Young (Rutgers), De’vion Harman (Oklahoma), and Quincy Guerrier (Syracuse). Will those three produce as much as the departed LJ Figueroa, Chris Duarte (First round pick), and Eugene Omoruyi? I’m skeptical.
4. What team not ranked in the Top 25 is most likely to reach the Sweet 16?
Nick: Virginia Tech (#30). The Hokies have had marquee wins in November during each of Mike Young’s two years (Michigan State in 2019, Villanova in 2020). Last year, the Hokies lost 75-70 in the first round of the tournament. Keve Aluma (15.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is back as one of three returning starters. Storm Murphy is an instant bucket, in as an impact transfer after starring at Wofford, formerly under Young. I’ll go as far to say that this team can finish in Top 4 in the ACC, in addition to making just their third Sweet 16 ever.
Sam: USC (#28). Andy Enfield has quietly done a very good job in LA (That may or may not be due to LA not caring, but I digress). He has won 20+ games in four of the last five seasons, and last year’s Elite 8 team finished sixth in KenPom. Yes, superstar Evan Mobley is gone, as is the underrated Tahj Eaddy, but I am a big fan of the returning parts. Isaiah Mobley (Evan’s older brother) was really good last season, and took his game to another level in the tournament. Drew Peterson doesn’t have one spectacular quality, but is a solid all around player. And I am very high on Memphis transfer Boogie Ellie, who averaged 10 points a game last season.
5. What mid-major team is not getting their due respect?
Nick: San Diego State (#39). Can we still call the Aztecs a mid-major? They have made the NCAA Tournament eight times since the start of 2010. The reigning MWC champs will replace Matt Mitchell with Matt Bradley, an All-Pac 12 guard at Cal. Look for the Aztecs to repeat as MWC champs, and the Aztecs to be in the Top 25 the majority of this season.
Sam: Belmont (#38). I have long been infatuated with the Bruins’ offense, created by the legend Rick Byrd, and has seamlessly transferred to Byrd’s former player, Casey Alexander. Big man Nick Muszynski is everything I love about college basketball, and he will undoubtedly lead Belmont again this season. The Bruins will have more than its fair share of opportunities, traveling to Ohio, LSU, and Saint Louis all before Christmas.
6. What conference is most likely to overperform their preseason expectation?
Nick: Big Ten. I think that this league has some of the top teams in college basketball once again. Illinois, Michigan and Purdue are clear Final 4 contenders, while Maryland and Ohio State clearly have the horses to play into the second weekend. Sitting outside of the poll, there is some major hype around Indiana. The Hoosiers and new head coach Mike Woodson have the fans optimistic for a big season in Bloomington. I think people are down on the league as a whole after the embarrassing March performance, but they will bounce back this year.
Sam: SEC. I think it’s safe to say Kentucky will have a big bounce back year, and I’m extremely high on Eric Mussleman’s Arkansas team. I think that Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and my surprise team, Mississippi State, will all be really good this season. I love the new look Bulldogs with the influx of transfers, including former Spartan Mark “Rocket” Watts.
7. What conference is most likely to underperform their preseason expectation?
Nick: Pac 12. Similar to my reason for overachieving, I think that people are overvaluing the Pac 12’s performance in last year’s NCAA Tournament. UCLA is not the second best team in the country in my opinion. There are analysts out there that think as many as six or seven teams in this league get to the NCAA Tournament, with thoughts of multiple advancing to the second weekend. I think you see a regression toward the past few Pac 12 campaigns, where teams fall flat with some frustrating non-league losses. I’m looking at you Stanford and Washington State!
Sam: Big East. As I said with Villanova, I’m not enamored with this league as a whole. I think Villanova is overrated, I’m not high on UCONN post James Bouknight, and I’ve never been high on Travis Steele at Xavier. Who’s next up in this league? A St John’s squad who hasn’t proven much? Seton Hall? I don’t like the matchups for the Big East in both the Gavitt Games and the Big East/Big 12 battle. I think this could potentially be just a three or four bid league.
7. Michigan State is #26, the highest vote getter not ranked. Should the Spartans be ranked in the preseason poll?
Nick: No. Each year in college football, the tradition-rich programs get ranked higher than they deserve in the polls (see Miami FL, Michigan, Notre Dame, Tennessee, USC). Reputation alone, Michigan State probably should be ranked 23 or 24. But the fact that they aren’t ranked reflects the status of this team entering the year. Many players are being asked to make major steps up in the playing rotation. Someone needs to become the go-to guy, replacing Aaron Henry in that role. What version of Joey Hauser will we see? Can players such as Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham make the next step? How fast Max Christie and Jaden Aikens be ready? Is Tyson Walker going to have the same impact at MSU as he did at Northeastern? If MSU plays well or beats Kansas, then they are a Top 25 team. If they get embarrassed, then buckle up. It’ll be 2020-21 all over again.
Sam: I don’t think so. Like Nick said, MSU doesn’t deserve to be ranked, and good on the AP voters for not giving them a brand ranking. I’m not as skeptical on this team, and neither is Tom Izzo it seems, per his media comments. I think this team having a true point guard in Tyson Walker could make all the difference. He doesn’t need to be great, but how much would something like what Mike Smith did for Michigan last season help the Spartans. I think this could be one of the best shooting teams MSU has had in awhile, with rave reviews about Max Christie, and we know what guys like Gabe Brown and Joey Hauser are capable of. And on Nick’s final point, let’s keep in mind the fact that Kansas is a really good team. Yes, getting blown out in game one would not be ideal, but it also wouldn’t signal a terrible season just yet.
8. What are your thoughts on the B1G? There are five ranked teams: Michigan (#6), Purdue (#7), Illinois (#11), Ohio State (#17), and Maryland (#21). Who is the best?
Nick: Purdue is the best team in this league. They bring back everyone from a phenomenal team a year ago. Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams are all-conference players, and Sasha is still draining threes from Kokomo. Toss in an improved Zach Edey, high-profile recruits Caleb Furst and Trey Kaufman-Renn, and this team could break the Final Four streak that dates back to 1980. (Michigan #2, Illinois #3, Ohio State #4, Maryland #5)
Sam: Illinois is the best team in the league for my money. I love the returning duo of Andre Curbelo and Kofi Cockburn, and the seemingly ageless Trent Frazier provides a stable shooter and leader. I liked what I saw out of Jacob Grandison last season, and I’m excited to see him in what I expect to be a much more expanded role. This team will most likely have the same “Us vs the World” mentality last year’s group had, and that will bode very well for Brad Underwood and company. (Michigan #2, Purdue #3, Maryland #4, Ohio State #5)
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